Asteras Tripolis 2-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Asteras Tripolis take on OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Asteras Tripolis welcome OFI to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OFI — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Asteras Tripolis) versus 0.80 (OFI). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Asteras Tripolis in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 34% versus OFI 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 26% | OFI 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.91 xG and OFI 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.760 / defence 1.015 | OFI attack 1.004 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 0.950. Asteras Tripolis's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Asteras Tripolis games / 31 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 29% | Draw 39% | OFI 32%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | OFI 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 30% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 29% | Draw 39% | OFI 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.91 / OFI 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.760 / def 1.015 | OFI attack 1.004 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.166 / away 0.950 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.97
OFI xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Asteras Tripolis 2 - 0 OFI.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 29% chance of winning, OFI a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and OFI in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. OFI (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.76x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.43
39%
2.58
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.88
0.97
OFI xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.97 for OFI, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 11W 12D 15L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 14L across 38 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.18 PPG, OFI on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.16 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and OFI in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or OFI away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.39 PPG; OFI away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, OFI in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 28%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Asteras Tripolis) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; OFI in 33%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 44% of games; OFI in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and OFI tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OFI in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat OFI 2-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.91 xG and OFI 0.97 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.76 / defence 1.01 against OFI attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 29% | Draw 39% | OFI 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 26%, OFI 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.18 PPG, OFI 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.