Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 15 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's away record: 0W 2D 6L from 8 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Asteras Tripolis, 0.80 for Levadiakos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 0W, Levadiakos 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 29% versus Levadiakos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 35% | Levadiakos 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.36 xG and Levadiakos 0.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.945 / defence 0.678 | Levadiakos attack 0.641 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.045. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.678 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Asteras Tripolis games / 17 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 9%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.75 | Draw 2.94 | Levadiakos 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (57%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.45 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 34% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 20% | Levadiakos 38% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 30% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.36 / Levadiakos 0.45 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.945 / def 0.678 | Levadiakos attack 0.641 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.45
Levadiakos xG
30%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 57% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 9% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Record (1 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.64x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.45.
These ratings are built from 43/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 20.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.5%), 2-0 (15.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
57%
1.76
34%
2.94
9%
10.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
2 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.82
0.45
Levadiakos xG
1.76
57%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
10.80
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.31
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
64%
1.57
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
2%
42.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.1 | 10.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.1 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.45 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 3W 8D 6L from 17 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 10L across 17 games — 0.65 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 0.65 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.59 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 8D 6L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 2W 5D 10L in their last 17 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Levadiakos away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.62 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Asteras Tripolis) and 38% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Asteras Tripolis and 50% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 50% of games; Levadiakos in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 38% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Asteras Tripolis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 18, as Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.36 xG and Levadiakos 0.45 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.94 / defence 0.68 against Levadiakos attack 0.64 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 9%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 35%, Levadiakos 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.00 PPG, Levadiakos 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.