Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 7 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levadiakos (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Levadiakos are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Levadiakos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 1W, Levadiakos 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 50% versus Levadiakos 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 48% | Levadiakos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.59 xG and Levadiakos 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.153 / defence 1.084 | Levadiakos attack 1.192 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.234. Data: 38 Asteras Tripolis games / 38 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 38%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Levadiakos 2.63. The draw (23%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 23% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 70% | Levadiakos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.59 / Levadiakos 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.153 / def 1.084 | Levadiakos attack 1.192 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Draw (23%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Levadiakos xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 38% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Record (5 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 1W | Draws 3 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.19x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
38%
2.61
23%
4.26
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
3.19
1.59
Levadiakos xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.88
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.59 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 15W 10D 19L from 44 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 13L across 44 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.57 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 9W 7D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.77 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 19W 12D 13L in their last 44 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.38 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 52%, Levadiakos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Asteras Tripolis) and 52% (Levadiakos).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Asteras Tripolis's games and 62% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 52% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.59 xG and Levadiakos 1.59 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against Levadiakos attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 38%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 48%, Levadiakos 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.25 PPG, Levadiakos 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.