Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Asteras Tripolis take on Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 2W 3D 3L from 8 Super League 1 matches — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Super League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Lamia — All Games: 1W 3D 4L from 8 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.75 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Asteras Tripolis 1.12 PPG, Lamia 0.75 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 38% versus Lamia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 25% | Lamia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.94 xG and Lamia 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.832 / defence 1.197 | Lamia attack 0.747 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.119. Data: 8 Asteras Tripolis games / 8 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 29% | Draw 39% | Lamia 32%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Lamia 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 33% | Lamia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 29% | Draw 39% | Lamia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.94 / Lamia 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.832 / def 1.197 | Lamia attack 0.747 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lamia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 29% chance of winning, Lamia a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 0.88 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Lamia (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.83x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.44
39%
2.58
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.94
1.00
Lamia xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.00 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.12 PPG, Lamia on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.75 PPG overall record — Lamia travel well.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia in 62%.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Lamia have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lamia in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
4
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, Lamia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Asteras Tripolis 33% BTTS, Lamia 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Asteras Tripolis and 33% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Lamia in 33%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 67% of games; Lamia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 33% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 33% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Lamia tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lamia in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Asteras Tripolis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.94 xG and Lamia 1.00 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.83 / defence 1.20 against Lamia attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 29% | Draw 39% | Lamia 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lamia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 25%, Lamia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.12 PPG, Lamia 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.