Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Asteras Tripolis 0.90 PPG, Lamia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Asteras Tripolis register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lamia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 2 for Lamia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 37% versus Lamia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 37% | Lamia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.70 xG and Lamia 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.949 / defence 1.347 | Lamia attack 0.815 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.099. Data: 34 Asteras Tripolis games / 34 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 46% | Draw 31% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Lamia 4.17. Asteras Tripolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 60% | Lamia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 46% | Draw 31% | Lamia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.70 / Lamia 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.949 / def 1.347 | Lamia attack 0.815 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lamia xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 46% chance of winning, Lamia a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Record (6 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 2W | Draws 2 | Lamia 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Lamia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.26
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.91
1.21
Lamia xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
4%
23.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.21 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 41 games, going 7W 18D 16L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 1.00 PPG from 41 outings (8W 17D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 0.95 PPG, Lamia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 6W 11D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (1W 11D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.78 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 7W 18D 16L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Lamia have gone 8W 17D 16L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Lamia away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.38 PPG; Lamia away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lamia in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
4
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, Lamia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 38%, Lamia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Asteras Tripolis) and 38% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 38% of games; Lamia in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 43% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 38% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Lamia tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lamia in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.70 xG and Lamia 1.21 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.95 / defence 1.35 against Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 46% | Draw 31% | Lamia 24%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 37%, Lamia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 0.95 PPG, Lamia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.