Asteras Tripolis 2-2 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Asteras Tripolis are significantly better at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis than their overall form suggests.
Apollon Smirnis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Apollon Smirnis's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Apollon Smirnis in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 2W, Apollon Smirnis 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Apollon Smirnis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 66% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Asteras Tripolis 31% | Apollon Smirnis 28%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 25% | Apollon Smirnis 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.54 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.974 / defence 1.133 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.585 / defence 1.610. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.050. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.610 — this is suppressing Asteras Tripolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Asteras Tripolis games / 26 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 17%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Apollon Smirnis 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 20% | Apollon Smirnis 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 40% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.54 / Apollon Smirnis 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.974 / def 1.133 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.585 / def 1.610 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Apollon Smirnis xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Asteras Tripolis 2 - 2 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 58% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis?
Record (2 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 2W | Draws 0 | Apollon Smirnis 0W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Apollon Smirnis's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.58x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
58%
1.73
26%
3.90
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.24
0.70
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.70 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 11W 7D 14L from 32 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Apollon Smirnis, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 19L across 32 games — 0.66 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Asteras Tripolis by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 7W 2D 7L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Apollon Smirnis's away record stands at 2W 1D 13L across 16 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.44 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 28%.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
Apollon Smirnis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 4W 9D 19L in their last 32 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.44 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Asteras Tripolis
1
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis?
From 3 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Asteras Tripolis 2-2 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Asteras Tripolis) and 38% (Apollon Smirnis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Asteras Tripolis) and 56% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 44% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Apollon Smirnis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 38% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 56% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Apollon Smirnis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Relegation Round - 7, as Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.54 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.70 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Apollon Smirnis outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.58 / defence 1.61, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 17%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 25%, Apollon Smirnis 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.