Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off: Monday 24 January 2022 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 home games (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 9 home games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Apollon Smirnis's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Apollon Smirnis's away record over their last 7 away games: 0W 1D 6L (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Asteras Tripolis's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Apollon Smirnis's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Asteras Tripolis edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 16 Oct 2021, ended Asteras Tripolis 1–0 Apollon Smirnis — a Asteras Tripolis win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Apollon Smirnis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 62% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 38% of Asteras Tripolis's games and 31% of Apollon Smirnis's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 25% | Apollon Smirnis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.55 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.994 / defence 0.825 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.572 / defence 1.603. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.159. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.603 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Asteras Tripolis's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.572 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.55. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 17 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 16.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 62% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 13%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.61 | Draw 3.98 | Apollon Smirnis 7.76. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.55 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 22% (last 9 home games) | Apollon Smirnis 43% (last 7 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Monday 24 January 2022 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 62% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.55 / Apollon Smirnis 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.994 / def 0.825 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.572 / def 1.603 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Apollon Smirnis xG
33%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis FAQs
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 24 January 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 0 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 19) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 62% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Apollon Smirnis's defensive record (1.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.57x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from Asteras Tripolis's last 17 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
62%
1.61
25%
3.98
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.10
0.55
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
3%
36.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.55 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 6W 4D 6L from 16 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Apollon Smirnis, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 9L across 16 games — 0.56 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Asteras Tripolis by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 5W 1D 1L from their last 7 home games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Apollon Smirnis's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across their last 7 away games, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Apollon Smirnis's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.44 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Apollon Smirnis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Asteras Tripolis (Home) vs Apollon Smirnis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis Form FAQs
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 6D 9L in their last 16 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 2.29 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 15 May 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Asteras Tripolis
1
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2022: Asteras Tripolis 2-2 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 29%, Apollon Smirnis 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Asteras Tripolis) and 57% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 29% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Apollon Smirnis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 43% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 57% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Apollon Smirnis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 71% of Apollon Smirnis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Apollon Smirnis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Apollon Smirnis 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.55 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.55 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.57 / defence 1.60, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 62% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 13%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 25%, Apollon Smirnis 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.