Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.56 xG and Levadiakos 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.985 / defence 0.951 | Levadiakos attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.118. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 0 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 4.55. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.56 / Levadiakos 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.985 / def 0.951 | Levadiakos attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Levadiakos xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 53% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.98) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.85x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 26/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.92
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.46
0.90
Levadiakos xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.90 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
Levadiakos
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
4
Draws
1
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
From 8 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Levadiakos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Levadiakos 3-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.56 xG and Levadiakos 0.90 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Levadiakos attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 22%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.