Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis host Atromitos at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Aris Thessalonikis at 1.60 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Aris Thessalonikis register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Atromitos in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Atromitos 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus Atromitos 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 41% | Atromitos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 xG and Atromitos 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.099 / defence 0.829 | Atromitos attack 1.191 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.219. Data: 39 Aris Thessalonikis games / 39 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 32%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Atromitos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 / Atromitos 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.099 / def 0.829 | Atromitos attack 1.191 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Atromitos xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 39% chance of winning, Atromitos a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Record (5 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.41
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.56
1.20
Atromitos xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.20 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 21W 10D 15L from 46 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 18L across 46 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 11W 5D 6L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 5W 8D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.20 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos in 61%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Atromitos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.73 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Atromitos in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Aris Thessalonikis
4
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, Atromitos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 59%, Atromitos 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 54% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Atromitos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 59% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 54% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Atromitos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 xG and Atromitos 1.20 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Atromitos attack 1.19 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 32%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 41%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.