Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Apollon Smirnis welcome Lamia to Stadio Georgios Kamaras. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Apollon Smirnis — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Apollon Smirnis have posted 1W 2D 2L at Stadio Georgios Kamaras — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Apollon Smirnis at 0.60 PPG versus Lamia's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Apollon Smirnis in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 40% versus Lamia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 50% | Lamia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.81 xG and Lamia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.800 / defence 1.064 | Lamia attack 0.696 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.312. Data: 10 Apollon Smirnis games / 10 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 28% | Draw 35% | Lamia 37%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Lamia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Apollon Smirnis 40% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 28% | Draw 35% | Lamia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.81 / Lamia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.800 / def 1.064 | Lamia attack 0.696 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Lamia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Lamia xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 28% chance of winning, Lamia a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Lamia in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Lamia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
28%
3.55
35%
2.85
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.78
0.97
Lamia xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 16.3 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.97 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 5L across 10 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Apollon Smirnis on 0.60 PPG, Lamia on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Apollon Smirnis have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.60 PPG overall — Apollon Smirnis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamia's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.90 PPG overall record — Lamia travel well.
The Goals Picture
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Lamia have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamia away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lamia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Apollon Smirnis and Lamia runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Apollon Smirnis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Apollon Smirnis
2
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Lamia?
From 3 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 1, Lamia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Lamia?
Apollon Smirnis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Apollon Smirnis 40%, Lamia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Apollon Smirnis) and 40% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lamia in 40%; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 40% of games; Lamia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 40% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 40% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Lamia tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Lamia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Apollon Smirnis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 11, as Apollon Smirnis and Lamia drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.81 xG and Lamia 0.97 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Apollon Smirnis fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Lamia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Lamia attack 0.70 / defence 0.91, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 28% | Draw 35% | Lamia 37%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 50%, Lamia 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Apollon Smirnis 0.60 PPG, Lamia 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.