AEK Athens FC 0-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 52% versus PAOK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 59% | PAOK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.07 xG and PAOK 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.190 / defence 1.116 | PAOK attack 1.209 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 AEK Athens FC games / 26 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 28% | Draw 27% | PAOK 45%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 2.22. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 70% | PAOK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 28% | Draw 27% | PAOK 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.07 / PAOK 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.190 / def 1.116 | PAOK attack 1.209 / def 0.905 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: PAOK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
PAOK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
AEK Athens FC 0 - 1 PAOK.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 28% chance of winning, PAOK a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.21x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
28%
3.54
27%
3.72
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.42
PAOK xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.59
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.42 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 27 games, going 14W 5D 8L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.07 PPG from 27 outings (17W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.07 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 8W 1D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 2.00 points per game from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.89 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; PAOK in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 14W 5D 8L in their last 27 games (1.74 PPG), while PAOK have gone 17W 5D 5L in their last 27 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.92 PPG; PAOK away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, PAOK in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
4
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, PAOK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 54%, PAOK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for AEK Athens FC and 54% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 8% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; PAOK in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 46% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 54% of PAOK's.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAOK tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, PAOK in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out AEK Athens FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat AEK Athens FC 0-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.07 xG and PAOK 1.42 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.91, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 28% | Draw 27% | PAOK 45%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 59%, PAOK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.74 PPG, PAOK 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.