AEK Athens FC 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OPAP Arena plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 29 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's home record at OPAP Arena: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for AEK Athens FC, 1.80 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — AEK Athens FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Aris Thessalonikis in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 47% versus Aris Thessalonikis 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 54% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.58 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.535 / defence 0.674 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.883 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.027. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.535 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.674 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 AEK Athens FC games / 45 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 58% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 11%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.72 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (58%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 58% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.58 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.535 / def 0.674 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.883 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Aris Thessalonikis xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 58% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 11% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.88x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
58%
1.73
31%
3.19
11%
9.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.19
0.61
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
9.13
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
2%
44.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.61 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 30W 10D 15L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 27W 12D 16L from 55 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.69 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 1.96 PPG from 27 outings (17W 2D 8L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 11W 4D 12L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.22 scored and 0.76 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 27%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 30W 10D 15L in their last 55 games (1.82 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 27W 12D 16L in their last 55 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.96 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.37 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
3
Draws
0
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 41%, Aris Thessalonikis 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (AEK Athens FC) and 30% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 37%; Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.58 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.61 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.53 / defence 0.67 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 58% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 11%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.82 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.