Werder Bremen 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host VfL Wolfsburg at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfL Wolfsburg — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Werder Bremen, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 8.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2020, ended 3–5 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 64% versus VfL Wolfsburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 36% | VfL Wolfsburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.86 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.750 / defence 1.155 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.925 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.360. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Werder Bremen games / 25 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 20% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 49%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.04. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 20% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Werder Bremen 0.86 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.750 / def 1.155 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.925 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.45
VfL Wolfsburg xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 March 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Werder Bremen 1 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 20% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (1 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.75) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
20%
4.88
30%
3.31
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.31
1.45
VfL Wolfsburg xG
4.88
20%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
5%
20.87
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.45 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 9D 9L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.92 PPG from 25 outings (13W 9D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Werder Bremen's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.58 points per game from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.72 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 13W 9D 3L in their last 25 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.08 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Werder Bremen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
4
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Werder Bremen) and 42% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Werder Bremen's games and 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 42% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out Werder Bremen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 0.86 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.75 / defence 1.16 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 20% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 49%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 36%, VfL Wolfsburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.