Werder Bremen 1-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 5D 2L across 9 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.22 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.22 PPG across 9 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.89 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.22 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.22 for Werder Bremen, 1.22 for VfB Stuttgart — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, VfB Stuttgart in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 89% and VfB Stuttgart 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 33% | VfB Stuttgart 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.24 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.803 / defence 1.133 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.023 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.613. Data: 9 Werder Bremen games / 9 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 22% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 49%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | VfB Stuttgart 2.04. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 75% | VfB Stuttgart 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 22% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Werder Bremen 1.24 / VfB Stuttgart 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.803 / def 1.133 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.023 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.613 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.87
VfB Stuttgart xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 December 2020 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Werder Bremen 1 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 22% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.80x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.02x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
22%
4.53
29%
3.47
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.11
1.87
VfB Stuttgart xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
3%
29.44
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.87 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 5D 2L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.22 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Werder Bremen's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 2.00 points per game from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.22 PPG overall record — VfB Stuttgart travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.89 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 89%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.25 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Werder Bremen, 75% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Werder Bremen) and 50% (VfB Stuttgart).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Werder Bremen's games and 75% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 50% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Werder Bremen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.24 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 22% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 49%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 33%, VfB Stuttgart 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 89%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.22 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.