Werder Bremen 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.22 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Freiburg are 1.10 PPG clear of Werder Bremen in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Werder Bremen, 0 for SC Freiburg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 68% and SC Freiburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 32% | SC Freiburg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.10 xG and SC Freiburg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.702 / defence 1.165 | SC Freiburg attack 0.772 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.447. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Freiburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Werder Bremen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Werder Bremen games / 20 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 31% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 41%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | SC Freiburg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Werder Bremen 67% | SC Freiburg 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 31% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Werder Bremen 1.10 / SC Freiburg 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.702 / def 1.165 | SC Freiburg attack 0.772 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.30
SC Freiburg xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Werder Bremen 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 31% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 0W.
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.70x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.77x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
31%
3.23
28%
3.54
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.40
1.30
SC Freiburg xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.30 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 5W 7D 7L from 19 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 6L across 19 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.42 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Freiburg's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.68 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or SC Freiburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.12 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 21 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 62%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Werder Bremen) and 62% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Werder Bremen's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 62% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Werder Bremen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.10 xG and SC Freiburg 1.30 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.70 / defence 1.17 against SC Freiburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.26, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 31% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 41%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 32%, SC Freiburg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.16 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.