Werder Bremen 0-0 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 42%, yet the head-to-head data favours RB Leipzig — this Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host RB Leipzig at Weserstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, RB Leipzig stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Leipzig's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Werder Bremen 1.70 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
RB Leipzig have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Werder Bremen.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Jan 2025, ended Werder Bremen 2–4 RB Leipzig — a RB Leipzig win.
The H2H data backs the away side. RB Leipzig have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Werder Bremen trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 56% versus RB Leipzig 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 62% | RB Leipzig 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.44 xG and RB Leipzig 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.871 / defence 1.002 | RB Leipzig attack 0.806 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.448. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 66 games and RB Leipzig's last 66.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 30%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.37 | Draw 3.53 | RB Leipzig 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 50% (last 10 home games) | RB Leipzig 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Werder Bremen 1.44 / RB Leipzig 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.871 / def 1.002 | RB Leipzig attack 0.806 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.17
RB Leipzig xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Werder Bremen 0 - 0 RB Leipzig.
Where is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig part of?
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 42% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.87) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 66 games and RB Leipzig's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.53
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
RB Leipzig xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
7%
14.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.17 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 24W 17D 25L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
RB Leipzig's form line: 32W 19D 15L from 66 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.35 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 33 home games (12W 9D 12L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 13W 9D 11L from their last 33 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.94 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
Werder Bremen (Home) vs RB Leipzig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 24W 17D 25L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 32W 19D 15L in their last 66 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.36 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from April 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Apr 2021, when RB Leipzig won Werder Bremen 1-4 RB Leipzig.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 58%, RB Leipzig 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Werder Bremen and 64% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Werder Bremen's games and 64% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Werder Bremen's matches and 64% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 67% of RB Leipzig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Werder Bremen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 33, as Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.44 xG and RB Leipzig 1.17 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against RB Leipzig attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 30%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, RB Leipzig 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.35 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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