Werder Bremen 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Werder Bremen take on 1. FC Köln.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln meet at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 November 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 3D 1L across 6 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Köln have collected 0.33 PPG across 6 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Werder Bremen's 1.50 PPG return is 1.17 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, 1. FC Köln in 83%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 83% and 1. FC Köln 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 33% | 1. FC Köln 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.10 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.808 / defence 1.166 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.657 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.389. Data: 6 Werder Bremen games / 6 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 37% | 1. FC Köln 30%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | 1. FC Köln 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Werder Bremen 67% | 1. FC Köln 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 37% | 1. FC Köln 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Werder Bremen 1.10 / 1. FC Köln 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.808 / def 1.166 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.657 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
1. FC Köln xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 November 2020 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Werder Bremen 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 32% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.81) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.66x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
37%
2.67
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.17
1.06
1. FC Köln xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.06 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 2W 3D 1L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 4L across 6 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Werder Bremen by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 7-1 on 21 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln?
From 8 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-1 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Werder Bremen, 83% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Werder Bremen) and 50% (1. FC Köln).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Werder Bremen's games and 83% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.10 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.66 / defence 1.11, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 37% | 1. FC Köln 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 33%, 1. FC Köln 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.