VfL Wolfsburg 5-3 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as VfL Wolfsburg take on Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as VfL Wolfsburg welcome Werder Bremen to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 3W 5D 0L from 8 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.75 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 0.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.62 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA: 2W 2D 0L from 4 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have recorded 2W 5D 1L from 8 outings — 1.38 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.75 PPG (VfL Wolfsburg) versus 1.38 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 62% and Werder Bremen 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (VfL Wolfsburg 25% | Werder Bremen 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 xG and Werder Bremen 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.831 / defence 0.889 | Werder Bremen attack 0.804 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.582. Data: 8 VfL Wolfsburg games / 8 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 28% | Draw 38% | Werder Bremen 34%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Werder Bremen 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: VfL Wolfsburg 50% | Werder Bremen 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 28% | Draw 38% | Werder Bremen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 / Werder Bremen 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.831 / def 0.889 | Werder Bremen attack 0.804 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.582 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Werder Bremen xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 27 November 2020 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen?
VfL Wolfsburg 5 - 3 Werder Bremen.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 28% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-5D-0L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.62 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-5D-1L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.59
38%
2.66
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Werder Bremen xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.13 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 3W 5D 0L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen's form line: 2W 5D 1L from 8 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.75 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 88%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 5D 0L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 2.00 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Werder Bremen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
4
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 50%, Werder Bremen at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 25% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 100% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 25% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Werder Bremen 5-3 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 xG and Werder Bremen 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Werder Bremen attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 28% | Draw 38% | Werder Bremen 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 25%, Werder Bremen 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.75 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.