VfL Wolfsburg 2-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Volkswagen Arena to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Volkswagen Arena, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. VfB Stuttgart's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of VfL Wolfsburg's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 3 for VfB Stuttgart and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 2–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 63% and VfB Stuttgart 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfL Wolfsburg 60% | VfB Stuttgart 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.945 / defence 1.082 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.052 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.630. Data: 38 VfL Wolfsburg games / 38 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 43%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | VfB Stuttgart 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 80% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 / VfB Stuttgart 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.945 / def 1.082 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.052 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.630 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.85
VfB Stuttgart xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
VfL Wolfsburg 2 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 30% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (6 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 2W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 0.94x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.68
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.41
1.85
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
16%
6.39
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
5%
21.19
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.85 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 7D 20L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 2.11 PPG from 38 outings (25W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 6W 4D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (11W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.37 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 7D 20L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 25W 5D 8L in their last 38 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.16 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.79 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 74%, VfB Stuttgart at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for VfL Wolfsburg and 74% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 58% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 74% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 2-2 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.85 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 43%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 60%, VfB Stuttgart 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.