VfL Bochum 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Bochum at 58%, yet the head-to-head data favours SC Freiburg — this VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Vonovia Ruhrstadion to face VfL Bochum in Bundesliga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
VfL Bochum (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
SC Freiburg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for VfL Bochum, 1.10 for SC Freiburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to SC Freiburg, who have 6 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended VfL Bochum 1–2 SC Freiburg — a SC Freiburg win.
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Bochum 60% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 60% | SC Freiburg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.838 / defence 1.046 | SC Freiburg attack 0.709 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.817 / away 1.405. SC Freiburg's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfL Bochum's projected output up. SC Freiburg's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from VfL Bochum's last 53 games and SC Freiburg's last 53.
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 58% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 20%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 1.72 | Draw 4.56 | SC Freiburg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to VfL Bochum (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Bochum's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: VfL Bochum 40% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 58% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG VfL Bochum 1.93 / SC Freiburg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.838 / def 1.046 | SC Freiburg attack 0.709 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.817 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SC Freiburg xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg FAQs
What time does VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
VfL Bochum 0 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 58% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Bochum's attack rating (0.84) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.71x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from VfL Bochum's last 53 games and SC Freiburg's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.56
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.97
1.04
SC Freiburg xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
3%
34.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.04 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 10W 15D 28L from 53 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 22L across 53 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Bochum heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 7W 10D 9L from their last 26 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 7W 4D 15L across their last 26 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.34 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 60%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
VfL Bochum (Home) vs SC Freiburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Bochum
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg Form FAQs
What form are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 10W 15D 28L in their last 53 games (0.85 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or SC Freiburg away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.19 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the most recent 7 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won SC Freiburg 3-0 VfL Bochum on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
VfL Bochum
0
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Bochum have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: VfL Bochum 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 65%, SC Freiburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for VfL Bochum and 65% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 35%; SC Freiburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 42% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VfL Bochum's matches and 65% of SC Freiburg's.
Do VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 65% of SC Freiburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfL Bochum 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfL Bochum 0-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfL Bochum fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against SC Freiburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 58% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 20%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 60%, SC Freiburg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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