VfL Bochum 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfL Bochum face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen meet at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Vonovia Ruhrstadion this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VfL Bochum have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bayer Leverkusen in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bayer Leverkusen, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–5 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
It is worth noting that Bayer Leverkusen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
VfL Bochum half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Bochum 67% and Bayer Leverkusen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfL Bochum 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.09 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.759 / defence 1.395 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.309 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.507. VfL Bochum's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 2.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 VfL Bochum games / 43 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 11% | Draw 19% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 9.09 | Draw 5.26 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.09 / 2.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Bochum 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 11% | Draw 19% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 64% | xG VfL Bochum 1.09 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.75 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.759 / def 1.395 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.309 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (70%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
2.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
64%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfL Bochum 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 11% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 70% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (6 meetings): VfL Bochum 1W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 4W.
What form are VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
VfL Bochum's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.31x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.75.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.2%), 1-3 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
11%
9.46
19%
5.26
70%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.84
2.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
9.46
11%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
1.42
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
6%
15.64
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
1%
147.99
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 2.75 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Bochum come into this having played 43 games, going 8W 12D 23L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 2.47 PPG from 43 outings (32W 10D 1L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.63 PPG clear of VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
VfL Bochum's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 2.52 points per game from 21 outings (16W 5D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.53 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 60%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 8W 12D 23L in their last 43 games (0.84 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 32W 10D 1L in their last 43 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.10 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.52 PPG.
Have VfL Bochum or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Bochum have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-5 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
VfL Bochum
2
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for VfL Bochum, 62% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for VfL Bochum and 67% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of VfL Bochum's games and 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Bochum vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of VfL Bochum's matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen finished level at 1-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.09 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.75 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.76 / defence 1.40 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.31 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 11% | Draw 19% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 70%, Bayer Leverkusen 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.