VfB Stuttgart 2-3 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 93%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mercedes-Benz-Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 19 September 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 5.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SC Freiburg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 5.329 / away 1.050. Data: 0 VfB Stuttgart games / 0 SC Freiburg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 93% | Draw 5% | SC Freiburg 2%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.08 | Draw 20.00 | SC Freiburg 50.00. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (93%) — a 91pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 94% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 6.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 94% — a total xG of 6.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (5.00 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 93% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 6.03 combined xG gives a 94% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 93% | Draw 5% | SC Freiburg 2% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 94% | BTTS 64% | xG VfB Stuttgart 5.00 / SC Freiburg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SC Freiburg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 5.329 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (93%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
5.00
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.03
SC Freiburg xG
64%
BTTS
99%
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
85%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 September 2020 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 3 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 93% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 2% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 94%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 0.85x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 5.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.85x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 4-1 carries the highest individual probability at 6.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 5-1 (6.5%), 4-0 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
93%
1.08
5%
19.69
2%
45.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 1
6.5%
Home win
Most likely
5 – 1
6.5%
Home win
4 – 0
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
5.00
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
6.03
1.03
SC Freiburg xG
1.08
93%
Home win
19.69
5%
Draw
45.45
2%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
94%
Over 2.5
1.06
6%
Under 2.5
16.67
85%
Over 3.5
1.18
15%
Under 3.5
6.67
72%
Over 4.5
1.39
28%
Under 4.5
3.57
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
1%
148.41
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 4-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.5%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 5.00 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.03 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 6.03.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 93%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Pre-Season
SC Freiburg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 5.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.03 xG, a combined 6.03. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 3.0 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SC Freiburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 93% | Draw 5% | SC Freiburg 2%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 93%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 2% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 94%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 99% and landed. Over 3.5 was 85% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.