VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 4W 4D 2L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 1.70 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 67% and Borussia Dortmund 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 56% | Borussia Dortmund 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.80 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.088 / defence 0.978 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.116 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.353. Borussia Dortmund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 VfB Stuttgart games / 27 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Dortmund 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 60% | Borussia Dortmund 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.80 / Borussia Dortmund 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.088 / def 0.978 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.116 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 44% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
44%
2.25
25%
4.03
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.28
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
5%
19.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.48 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 9D 8L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (13W 4D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.44 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 4W 6D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.54 points per game from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.04 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 13W 4D 10L in their last 27 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.38 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.54 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 69%, Borussia Dortmund at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for VfB Stuttgart and 77% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 77% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 77% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Borussia Dortmund defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.80 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.12 / defence 1.38, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 56%, Borussia Dortmund 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.44 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.