VfB Stuttgart 2-0 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as VfB Stuttgart welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to Mercedes-Benz-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 March 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1899 Hoffenheim — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.50 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 75% and 1899 Hoffenheim 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 58% | 1899 Hoffenheim 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.92 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.133 / defence 1.182 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.862 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.380. 1899 Hoffenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 VfB Stuttgart games / 24 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 48% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.70. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 48% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.92 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.133 / def 1.182 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.862 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.41
1899 Hoffenheim xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 March 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 48% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.13x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.99
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.32
1.41
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
4%
25.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.41 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 8W 9D 7L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 8W 6D 10L from 24 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.38 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 4D 5L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.62 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.09 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
6
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 82%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for VfB Stuttgart and 73% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 82% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 73% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.92 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.41 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.13 / defence 1.18 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.86 / defence 1.42, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 48% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 58%, 1899 Hoffenheim 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.38 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.