Union Berlin 0-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face Holstein Kiel.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Holstein Kiel travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Union Berlin at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Holstein Kiel stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Holstein Kiel away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 0.80 (Holstein Kiel). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Union Berlin, 0 for Holstein Kiel and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Union Berlin 2–0 Holstein Kiel — a Union Berlin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 40% versus Holstein Kiel 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 47% | Holstein Kiel 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.67 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.728 / defence 0.917 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.074 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.385. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.67. Holstein Kiel's defence rating of 1.411 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 57 games and Holstein Kiel's last 23.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 43% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 30%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.30 | Draw 3.75 | Holstein Kiel 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 70% (last 10 home games) | Holstein Kiel 100% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 43% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Union Berlin 1.67 / Holstein Kiel 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.728 / def 0.917 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.074 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Holstein Kiel xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Union Berlin 0 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 43% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 57 games and Holstein Kiel's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.75
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.04
1.36
Holstein Kiel xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.36 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 15W 12D 30L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Holstein Kiel's form line: 24W 9D 24L from 57 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 6D 11L).
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 6D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.74 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Holstein Kiel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 15W 12D 30L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 24W 9D 24L in their last 57 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.39 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
0
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Union Berlin 0-1 Holstein Kiel.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 54%, Holstein Kiel 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Union Berlin and 68% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 36%; Union Berlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union Berlin's games and 64% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 68% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 82% of Holstein Kiel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Union Berlin 0-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.67 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.36 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.92 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.07 / defence 1.41, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 43% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 30%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 47%, Holstein Kiel 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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