Union Berlin 0-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union Berlin's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 70% and FC Augsburg 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | FC Augsburg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.47 xG and FC Augsburg 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.940 / defence 0.925 | FC Augsburg attack 0.821 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.824 / away 1.186. Data: 37 Union Berlin games / 37 FC Augsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | FC Augsburg 5.00. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Union Berlin 90% | FC Augsburg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Union Berlin 1.47 / FC Augsburg 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.940 / def 0.925 | FC Augsburg attack 0.821 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.824 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.90
FC Augsburg xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Union Berlin 0 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 47% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union Berlin and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.94) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.82x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
47%
2.12
33%
3.03
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.37
0.90
FC Augsburg xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.90 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Berlin come into this having played 37 games, going 13W 16D 8L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (10W 7D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Berlin's home form reads 9W 9D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.00 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 13W 16D 8L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 10W 7D 20L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC Augsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
4
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 78%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Union Berlin) and 44% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Union Berlin's games and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Union Berlin's recent games and 44% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg finished level at 0-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.47 xG and FC Augsburg 0.90 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 47% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 20%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, FC Augsburg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.