Union Berlin 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Union Berlin, 1.20 for Arminia Bielefeld — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 69% versus Arminia Bielefeld 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | Arminia Bielefeld 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.57 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.877 / defence 0.829 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.865 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.294. Data: 39 Union Berlin games / 39 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 33% | Arminia Bielefeld 19%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Arminia Bielefeld 5.26. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | Arminia Bielefeld 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 33% | Arminia Bielefeld 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Union Berlin 1.57 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.877 / def 0.829 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.865 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Arminia Bielefeld xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 49% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (2 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 1 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.86x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
49%
2.05
33%
3.07
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.50
0.93
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
25.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.93 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 13W 17D 9L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arminia Bielefeld's form line: 9W 12D 18L from 39 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (9W 10D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 7D 9L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.74 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 13W 17D 9L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 9W 12D 18L in their last 39 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.95 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 5-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
1
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 74%, Arminia Bielefeld 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union Berlin) and 47% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Union Berlin's games and 47% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Union Berlin's recent games and 47% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out Arminia Bielefeld 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.57 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.88 / defence 0.83 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 49% | Draw 33% | Arminia Bielefeld 19%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, Arminia Bielefeld 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.