SC Paderborn 07 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Final. Kick-off: Monday 25 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.00 for VfL Wolfsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, VfL Wolfsburg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 0W, VfL Wolfsburg 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 66% and VfL Wolfsburg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.74 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.064 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.470. Data: 0 SC Paderborn 07 games / 68 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Final | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.74 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.064 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.80
VfL Wolfsburg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 25 May 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Final fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 38% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 1 | VfL Wolfsburg 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against VfL Wolfsburg's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (1.06x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 0/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
38%
2.66
23%
4.44
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.54
1.80
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
6%
16.08
7%
14.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.80 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 15W 11D 9L from 35 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 19L across 35 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Wolfsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.29 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 71%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 15W 11D 9L in their last 35 games (1.60 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 7W 9D 19L in their last 35 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.59 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
0
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for SC Paderborn 07, 76% for VfL Wolfsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Paderborn 07 and 65% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 76% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 65% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Final, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.74 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.80 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.