SC Freiburg 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees 1899 Hoffenheim travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 5W 4D 1L at Europa-Park Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 58% and 1899 Hoffenheim 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | 1899 Hoffenheim 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.86 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.894 / defence 0.957 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.169 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.752 / away 1.355. Data: 48 SC Freiburg games / 48 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG SC Freiburg 1.86 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.894 / def 0.957 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.169 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.752 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.51
1899 Hoffenheim xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg 1 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 44% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.89) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.79
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.37
1.51
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.51 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 19W 13D 16L from 48 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 18L across 48 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.46 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 10W 8D 5L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 4W 8D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1899 Hoffenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.71 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.65 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 65%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for SC Freiburg and 61% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SC Freiburg's games and 65% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SC Freiburg's matches and 61% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat SC Freiburg 1-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.86 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.51 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.17 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 30%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, 1899 Hoffenheim 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.46 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.