Holstein Kiel 1-5 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round sees 1. FC Köln travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
1. FC Köln's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Holstein Kiel are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.90 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Holstein Kiel, 0 for 1. FC Köln and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2021, ended 1–0 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.40 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.658 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.327. 1. FC Köln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Holstein Kiel games / 34 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 44% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 25%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Köln 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 44% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.40 / 1. FC Köln 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.658 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.00
1. FC Köln xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 5 1. FC Köln.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln is a Relegation Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln?
Record (1 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 0.85x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
44%
2.29
32%
3.15
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.40
1.00
1. FC Köln xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.00 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 0%.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Holstein Kiel or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
0
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 1, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2021, when Holstein Kiel 1-5 1. FC Köln.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play 1. FC Köln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 0% of 1. FC Köln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Holstein Kiel's recent games and 0% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Köln run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Holstein Kiel 1-5 at Holstein-Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.40 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.00 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 1.00 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.66 / defence 1.25, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 44% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 25%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Köln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 0%, 1. FC Köln 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Köln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel shipped 5 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln scored 5 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.