Hertha BSC 2-4 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Hertha BSC welcome Werder Bremen to Olympiastadion Berlin. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hertha BSC are significantly better at Olympiastadion Berlin than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Hertha BSC) versus 0.80 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 2 for Werder Bremen and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Werder Bremen trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 60% and Werder Bremen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 56% | Werder Bremen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.89 xG and Werder Bremen 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.860 / defence 1.052 | Werder Bremen attack 1.001 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.287. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Hertha BSC games / 28 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 25%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Werder Bremen 4.00. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 50% | Werder Bremen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Hertha BSC 1.89 / Werder Bremen 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.860 / def 1.052 | Werder Bremen attack 1.001 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Werder Bremen xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Hertha BSC 2 - 4 Werder Bremen.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen part of?
Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 47% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen?
Record (3 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 2W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.56
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.25
1.35
Werder Bremen xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.35 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 15W 13D 34L from 62 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 21L across 62 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Werder Bremen by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 9W 8D 13L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 14W 7D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.74 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 66%.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 15W 13D 34L in their last 62 games (0.94 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 27W 14D 21L in their last 62 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.17 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Werder Bremen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2020, when Hertha BSC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen?
From 4 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 63%, Werder Bremen at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Hertha BSC and 77% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hertha BSC's games and 70% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hertha BSC's matches and 77% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Hertha BSC 2-4 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.89 xG and Werder Bremen 1.35 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Werder Bremen attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 25%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 56%, Werder Bremen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.