Hertha BSC 0-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host VfB Stuttgart at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Hertha BSC) versus 1.33 (VfB Stuttgart). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 100% and VfB Stuttgart 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 100% | VfB Stuttgart 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.36 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.879 / defence 1.329 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.134 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.385. Data: 3 Hertha BSC games / 3 VfB Stuttgart games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 22% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 51%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | VfB Stuttgart 1.96. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 100% | VfB Stuttgart 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 22% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Hertha BSC 1.36 / VfB Stuttgart 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.879 / def 1.329 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.134 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
2.09
VfB Stuttgart xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 October 2020 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hertha BSC 0 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 22% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 W-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
22%
4.52
26%
3.78
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.45
2.09
VfB Stuttgart xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
12%
8.05
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
3%
36.39
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 2.09 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.00 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 100%, VfB Stuttgart at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hertha BSC and 67% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hertha BSC's games and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hertha BSC's matches and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Hertha BSC 0-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.36 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.09 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 22% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 51%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 100%, VfB Stuttgart 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.00 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.