Hertha BSC 0-3 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Leipzig make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
RB Leipzig's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
RB Leipzig arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hertha BSC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2020, ended 1–2 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
RB Leipzig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 57% versus RB Leipzig 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 57% | RB Leipzig 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 0.96 xG and RB Leipzig 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.780 / defence 1.363 | RB Leipzig attack 0.967 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.448. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Hertha BSC games / 21 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 18% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 59%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | RB Leipzig 1.69. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 50% | RB Leipzig 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 18% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Hertha BSC 0.96 / RB Leipzig 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.780 / def 1.363 | RB Leipzig attack 0.967 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.91
RB Leipzig xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 21 February 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Hertha BSC 0 - 3 RB Leipzig.
Where is Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig part of?
Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 18% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.78) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (0.97x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
18%
5.66
24%
4.20
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.91
RB Leipzig xG
5.66
18%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
3%
38.18
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.91 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 4W 6D 11L from 21 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 3L across 21 games — 2.10 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 1.24 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 2W 2D 6L from 10 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.76 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 13W 5D 3L in their last 21 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 0.80 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: RB Leipzig have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 6-0 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against RB Leipzig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Hertha BSC 0-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 50%, RB Leipzig 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hertha BSC) and 40% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 40%; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play RB Leipzig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 50% of RB Leipzig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 40% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Hertha BSC 0-3 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.96 xG and RB Leipzig 1.91 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.78 / defence 1.36 against RB Leipzig attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 18% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 59%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 57%, RB Leipzig 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.