Hertha BSC 0-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV meet at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 19 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hertha BSC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion Berlin: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.72 xG and Hamburger SV 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.886 / defence 1.323 | Hamburger SV attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.412. Data: 68 Hertha BSC games / 0 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 34%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Hamburger SV 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Hertha BSC 1.72 / Hamburger SV 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.886 / def 1.323 | Hamburger SV attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Hamburger SV xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Hertha BSC 0 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV part of?
Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV is a Relegation Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 40% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Hertha BSC home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.85x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 68/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.92
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.59
Hamburger SV xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.59 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Pre-Season
Hamburger SV
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Hertha BSC 2-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Hertha BSC 0-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.72 xG and Hamburger SV 1.59 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hertha BSC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.89 / defence 1.32 against Hamburger SV attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 34%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.