FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart meet at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mewa Arena, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfB Stuttgart are 0.50 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, VfB Stuttgart have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to FSV Mainz 05's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VfB Stuttgart have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 57% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 52% | VfB Stuttgart 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.836 / defence 0.900 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.416 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.356. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 FSV Mainz 05 games / 58 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 60% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.48 / VfB Stuttgart 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.836 / def 0.900 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.416 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
VfB Stuttgart xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
FSV Mainz 05 2 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 33% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (9 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 1W | Draws 3 | VfB Stuttgart 5W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.84) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.42x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
33%
3.05
24%
4.21
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.21
1.73
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.18
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.73 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 18D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.66 PPG from 58 outings (28W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.66 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 9W 12D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.52 points per game from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.93 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 18D 21L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 28W 12D 18L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.34 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 55%, VfB Stuttgart 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (FSV Mainz 05) and 79% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 66% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 31% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 79% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 25, as FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.73 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.42 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.29 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.