FSV Mainz 05 0-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FSV Mainz 05 at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.40 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours FSV Mainz 05, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against FC Augsburg — FC Augsburg have 2 wins, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended FSV Mainz 05 3–2 FC Augsburg — a FSV Mainz 05 win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FSV Mainz 05 and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 56% versus FC Augsburg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 46% | FC Augsburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.939 / defence 0.740 | FC Augsburg attack 0.913 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.400. FSV Mainz 05 have a tight defence (rating 0.740), which is pulling FC Augsburg's projected output down. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 54 games and FC Augsburg's last 54.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 56% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.78 | Draw 4.21 | FC Augsburg 5.01. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (FSV Mainz 05 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 56% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.76 / FC Augsburg 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.939 / def 0.740 | FC Augsburg attack 0.913 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC Augsburg xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 56% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.94) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.91x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 54 games and FC Augsburg's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.21
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.70
0.95
FC Augsburg xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
3%
29.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.95 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 16W 18D 20L from 54 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 23L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.20 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 11W 7D 9L from their last 27 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 6W 6D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.37 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 63%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 16W 18D 20L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or FC Augsburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.48 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won FSV Mainz 05 4-1 FC Augsburg on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 48%, FC Augsburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FSV Mainz 05) and 63% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 59% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 63% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 93% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FSV Mainz 05's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg finished level at 0-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.94 / defence 0.74 against FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 56% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 20%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 46%, FC Augsburg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.22 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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