FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Mewa Arena to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 December 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 games at Mewa Arena this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FSV Mainz 05 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
FSV Mainz 05 hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, with 5 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
The historical record gives FSV Mainz 05 a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 54% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 50% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.13 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.806 / defence 1.017 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.206 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.454. Borussia Mönchengladbach have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 FSV Mainz 05 games / 46 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 23% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 52%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.92. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
FSV Mainz 05 dominate the H2H record, yet Borussia Mönchengladbach are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 23% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.13 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.806 / def 1.017 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.206 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 23% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (8 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 3W | Draws 5 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.81x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
23%
4.29
25%
4.03
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.91
1.78
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
4.29
23%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
25.53
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.78 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 13D 18L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 16W 10D 20L from 46 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.26 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (6W 9D 7L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 4D 10L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.54 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.23 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 54%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (FSV Mainz 05) and 64% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Mönchengladbach edge out FSV Mainz 05 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat FSV Mainz 05 0-1 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.13 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.78 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.21 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 23% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 52%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.26 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.