FC Augsburg 2-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 3D 4L at WWK Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC Augsburg. A 0.50 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC Augsburg 1W, FC St. Pauli 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 51% versus FC St. Pauli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | FC St. Pauli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.29 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.799 / defence 1.040 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.770 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.460. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 FC Augsburg games / 53 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 31% | FC St. Pauli 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | FC St. Pauli 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 50% | FC St. Pauli 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 31% | FC St. Pauli 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Augsburg 1.29 / FC St. Pauli 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.799 / def 1.040 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.770 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FC St. Pauli xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 38% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.80) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.77x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
38%
2.67
31%
3.22
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
FC St. Pauli xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.17 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 14D 23L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 11W 13D 29L from 53 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for FC Augsburg against 0.87 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 5D 16L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.85 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 13D 29L in their last 53 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.30 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-1 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 52%, FC St. Pauli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Augsburg) and 41% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games; FC St. Pauli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 44% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 41% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.29 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.77 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 31% | FC St. Pauli 31%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, FC St. Pauli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.17 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.