FC Augsburg 3-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 49%, yet in-form FC St. Pauli provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga (matchday 3). Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

FC Augsburg have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

FC St. Pauli (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC St. Pauli's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC St. Pauli are 1.00 PPG clear of FC Augsburg over their recent games (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Trading Data

FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and FC St. Pauli 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 64% | FC St. Pauli 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Augsburg surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while FC St. Pauli have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.68 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.979 / defence 1.013 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.680 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.556. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.680 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 36 games and FC St. Pauli's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 49% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.03 | Draw 3.48 | FC St. Pauli 4.57. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC St. Pauli (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (FC Augsburg 36 games, FC St. Pauli 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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