FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WWK Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.40 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, FC Augsburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 3, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 53% and Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Eintracht Frankfurt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.72 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.902 / defence 1.103 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.041 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.464. Data: 64 FC Augsburg games / 64 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 40% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 40% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Augsburg 1.72 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.902 / def 1.103 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.041 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 40% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (9 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 5 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.90) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
40%
2.53
23%
4.42
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.40
1.68
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
7%
13.59
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.68 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 21W 16D 27L from 64 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 18L across 64 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.23 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 12W 9D 11L from 32 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 11W 11D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.92 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 67%.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 28W 18D 18L in their last 64 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.41 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
6
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 53%, Eintracht Frankfurt 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Augsburg) and 66% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Augsburg's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Augsburg's matches and 66% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 1-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.72 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.04 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 40% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.23 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.