FC Augsburg 1-0 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayern München at 83%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Bayern München at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayern München have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayern München's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bayern München in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Augsburg, 1 for Bayern München and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Bayern München winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 52% and Bayern München 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 52% | Bayern München 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 0.89 xG and Bayern München 3.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.758 / defence 1.239 | Bayern München attack 1.739 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.548. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.739 — the away xG of 3.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 FC Augsburg games / 40 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 6% | Draw 10% | Bayern München 83%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 16.67 | Draw 10.00 | Bayern München 1.20. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (83%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 6% | Draw 10% | Bayern München 83% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Augsburg 0.89 / Bayern München 3.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.758 / def 1.239 | Bayern München attack 1.739 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
3.33
Bayern München xG
57%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 Bayern München.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 6% chance of winning, Bayern München a 83% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
Record (2 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Bayern München (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.76x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 3.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-3 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (8.1%), 1-3 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
6%
16.03
10%
9.58
83%
1.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
4.23
3.33
Bayern München xG
16.03
6%
Home win
9.58
10%
Draw
1.20
83%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
4%
28.08
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
0%
–
34%
2.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 3.33 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 8D 20L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayern München's form line: 27W 8D 5L from 40 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Bayern München, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 13W 4D 3L from 20 away games — 2.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.90 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Bayern München
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 12W 8D 20L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 27W 8D 5L in their last 40 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.25 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.15 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bayern München in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when Bayern München won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, Bayern München have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 65%, Bayern München at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC Augsburg and 80% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Augsburg's games and 75% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Augsburg's matches and 80% of Bayern München's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Bayern München 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Bayern München 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 0.89 xG and Bayern München 3.33 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayern München landed 3.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.24 against Bayern München attack 1.74 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 6% | Draw 10% | Bayern München 83%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 6% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 52%, Bayern München 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayern München's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.