Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Eintracht Frankfurt take on RB Leipzig.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus RB Leipzig in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2020 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.43 PPG across 7 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 1L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games (2.29 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.14 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.57 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RB Leipzig's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.29 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, RB Leipzig are the stronger side — 0.86 PPG clear of the hosts (2.29 vs 1.43). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 86% and RB Leipzig 43% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 57% | RB Leipzig 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.06 xG and RB Leipzig 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.892 / defence 1.061 | RB Leipzig attack 0.742 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.484. Data: 7 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 7 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 29% | Draw 37% | RB Leipzig 34%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | RB Leipzig 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Frankfurt 100% | RB Leipzig 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2020, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 29% | Draw 37% | RB Leipzig 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.06 / RB Leipzig 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.892 / def 1.061 | RB Leipzig attack 0.742 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.17
RB Leipzig xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 November 2020 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 29% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.89x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (0.74x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.45
37%
2.72
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.23
1.17
RB Leipzig xG
3.45
29%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
9%
11.12
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.17 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 2W 4D 1L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 1L across 7 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Frankfurt heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.14 scored and 0.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or RB Leipzig away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.67 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 6-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Leipzig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
4
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, RB Leipzig have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Eintracht Frankfurt, 33% for RB Leipzig — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0% for RB Leipzig.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 33%; RB Leipzig in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 33% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 0% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig finished level at 1-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.06 xG and RB Leipzig 1.17 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against RB Leipzig attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 29% | Draw 37% | RB Leipzig 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 57%, RB Leipzig 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.