Eintracht Frankfurt 4-0 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus RB Leipzig in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
RB Leipzig's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.60 for RB Leipzig — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eintracht Frankfurt lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with RB Leipzig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and RB Leipzig 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 61% | RB Leipzig 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 xG and RB Leipzig 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.216 / defence 0.909 | RB Leipzig attack 0.887 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.441. Data: 64 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 64 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 25%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | RB Leipzig 4.00. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | RB Leipzig 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 / RB Leipzig 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.216 / def 0.909 | RB Leipzig attack 0.887 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.16
RB Leipzig xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 0 RB Leipzig.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 51% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
Record (7 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 3 | RB Leipzig 2W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.22x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (0.89x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.15
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.91
1.16
RB Leipzig xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
4%
22.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.16 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 26W 21D 17L from 64 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 32W 18D 14L across 64 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.78 for RB Leipzig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 16W 11D 5L from 32 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 13W 9D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.95 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 21D 17L in their last 64 games (1.55 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 32W 18D 14L in their last 64 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or RB Leipzig away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.84 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 6-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Leipzig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
4
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, RB Leipzig have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Eintracht Frankfurt, 66% for RB Leipzig — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 62% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 66% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 62% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 4-0 hammering of RB Leipzig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat RB Leipzig 4-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 xG and RB Leipzig 1.16 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RB Leipzig landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against RB Leipzig attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 25%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, RB Leipzig 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.55 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.