Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.10 (Bayer Leverkusen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 63% and Bayer Leverkusen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 46% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.73 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.003 / defence 0.954 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.071 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.384. Data: 43 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 43 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.73 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.003 / def 0.954 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.071 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bayer Leverkusen xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 44% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (2 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
44%
2.25
25%
4.06
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.14
1.42
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
6%
18.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.42 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 14W 14D 15L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 21W 9D 13L from 43 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.30 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 10W 6D 5L from 21 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.16 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 14W 14D 15L in their last 43 games (1.30 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 21W 9D 13L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.19 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
Draws
8
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 62%, Bayer Leverkusen at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 71% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.73 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.42 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 46%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.