Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome VfB Stuttgart to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.20 PPG versus VfB Stuttgart's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, VfB Stuttgart 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% and VfB Stuttgart 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | VfB Stuttgart 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.27 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.111 / defence 0.999 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.915 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.333. Data: 46 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 46 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 19%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | VfB Stuttgart 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.27 / VfB Stuttgart 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.111 / def 0.999 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.915 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.22
VfB Stuttgart xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 61% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
61%
1.65
20%
4.95
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.49
1.22
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
2%
50.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.22 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 16W 13D 17L from 46 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 9W 17D 20L across 46 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.33 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 12W 3D 7L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 1W 11D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.22 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 9W 17D 20L in their last 46 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.77 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, VfB Stuttgart 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 46% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 54% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 46% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat VfB Stuttgart 3-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.27 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.22 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 19%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 63%, VfB Stuttgart 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.33 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.