Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face SC Freiburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome SC Freiburg to BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, SC Freiburg have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Borussia Mönchengladbach) versus 0.90 (SC Freiburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 60% of SC Freiburg's (from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for SC Freiburg and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–3 SC Freiburg — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% and SC Freiburg 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% | SC Freiburg 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Borussia Mönchengladbach surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while SC Freiburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.20 xG and SC Freiburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.186 / defence 1.115 | SC Freiburg attack 0.874 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.389. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 60 games and SC Freiburg's last 60.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 56% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.80 | Draw 4.43 | SC Freiburg 4.57. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.20 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 56% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.20 / SC Freiburg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.186 / def 1.115 | SC Freiburg attack 0.874 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SC Freiburg xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 3 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 56% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 60 games and SC Freiburg's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.43
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.56
1.35
SC Freiburg xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
2%
41.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.35 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 17W 20D 23L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
SC Freiburg's form line: 26W 14D 20L from 60 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.18 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 7D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 11W 5D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs SC Freiburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 20D 23L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.73 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Sep 2026, when SC Freiburg won SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 57%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 67% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 33%; SC Freiburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 67% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 67% of SC Freiburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.20 xG and SC Freiburg 1.35 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 2.2 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.19 / defence 1.11 against SC Freiburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 56% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 22%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, SC Freiburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.18 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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