Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC St. Pauli travel to BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC St. Pauli have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
FC St. Pauli away from home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC St. Pauli trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% and FC St. Pauli 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | FC St. Pauli 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Borussia Mönchengladbach surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while FC St. Pauli have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.68 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.197 / defence 1.089 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.936 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.420. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 44 games and FC St. Pauli's last 10.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 41% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 31%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.46 | Draw 3.52 | FC St. Pauli 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 41% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.68 / FC St. Pauli 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.197 / def 1.089 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.936 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.45
FC St. Pauli xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 41% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (1.20) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 44 games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.52
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.12
1.45
FC St. Pauli xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.45 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 11W 15D 18L from 44 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 11L across 44 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 8W 6D 8L from their last 22 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 11W 4D 7L across their last 22 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.57 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs FC St. Pauli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 11W 15D 18L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 22W 11D 11L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.36 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Nov 2025, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won FC St. Pauli 0-4 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
0
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 68%, FC St. Pauli at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 59% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 64% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 59% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 73% of FC St. Pauli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.68 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.45 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.20 / defence 1.09 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 41% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 31%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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