Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face FC Augsburg.

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Fixture Analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome FC Augsburg to BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 21 January 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.40 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, FC Augsburg 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–4 FC Augsburg — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | FC Augsburg 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.23 xG and FC Augsburg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.135 / defence 0.994 | FC Augsburg attack 0.864 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.301. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 51 games and FC Augsburg's last 51.

Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 17%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 5.80. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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