Borussia Dortmund 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at Signal-Iduna-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund at Signal-Iduna-Park this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal-Iduna-Park. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at Signal-Iduna-Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.10 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 61% versus FC Augsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 67% | FC Augsburg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.45 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.048 / defence 1.196 | FC Augsburg attack 0.651 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.480. Data: 18 Borussia Dortmund games / 18 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 43% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 29%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | FC Augsburg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 50% | FC Augsburg 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 43% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.45 / FC Augsburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.048 / def 1.196 | FC Augsburg attack 0.651 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC Augsburg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 January 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 43% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.05) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.64
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.60
1.15
FC Augsburg xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.15 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 18 games, going 9W 2D 7L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.61 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.06 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 2D 7L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 50%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Borussia Dortmund) and 38% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 38% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.45 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against FC Augsburg attack 0.65 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 43% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 29%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 67%, FC Augsburg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.61 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.