Borussia Dortmund 0-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Borussia Dortmund — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Borussia Dortmund at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

FC Augsburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.30 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Borussia Dortmund: 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for FC Augsburg, with 2 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Borussia Dortmund 1–2 FC Augsburg — a FC Augsburg win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 66% and FC Augsburg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | FC Augsburg 59%). Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Borussia Dortmund recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.04 xG and FC Augsburg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.388 / defence 0.989 | FC Augsburg attack 0.978 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.386. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack rating of 1.388 — their 2.04 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 58 games and FC Augsburg's last 58.

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 53% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.90 | Draw 4.28 | FC Augsburg 4.16. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.04 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Borussia Dortmund 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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